It Is Not Up to Xi. And It Is Not Complicated.

In 1996, ahead of Taiwan’s first direct presidential election, the People’s Republic of China launched missile tests and military exercises near Taiwan, attempting to signal its opposition to then-President Lee Teng-hui’s push for international recognition and Taiwan’s ongoing democratization. The show of force was meant to deter both Taiwan’s electorate and the international community from treating Taiwan as a sovereign political actor, which the PRC considered a violation of its “One…